CAC 40: cautious rise ahead of Easter long weekend

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse looks set to extend its upward trend on Thursday morning ahead of the Easter long weekend, although the trend is likely to change depending on the day's statistics.


At around 8:15 a.m., the future contract on the CAC 40 index - expiring at the end of April - was trading at 8,243 points, up 19.5 points, suggesting a green start to the session.

The Parisian index has regained ground over the past two days, finally setting a new all-time closing high above the 8,200-point threshold yesterday evening.

The CAC is nevertheless trading with very narrow spreads and limited volumes, as investors seem to want to catch their breath at the end of a particularly buoyant first quarter for the equity markets.

'Volatility is reduced, volumes are low, and the underlying trend is still bullish. There's not much going on in the stock market at the moment", comments Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.

The CAC 40 is currently posting a limited gain of around 0.6% for the week, which was shortened due to Easter, bringing its gains since January 1 to almost 9%.

Today's session should once again be driven by economic indicators, in particular the latest estimate of US GDP growth in Q4, which should logically be confirmed at 3.2%.

In the US, investors will also be keeping an eye on the weekly jobless claims figures, as well as the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index.

The European stock markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday, as will Wall Street.

Investors will therefore lag behind tomorrow's scheduled publication of the PCE index in the US, which could allay or reinforce concerns over the reawakening of inflation.

While the New York Stock Exchange will reopen on Monday, European stock markets will remain closed until Tuesday morning.

In this wait-and-see climate ahead of the Easter weekend, and on the eve of a major US statistic, the euro is moving without much relief, sliding gently towards the 1.0820 zone against the dollar.

On the bond market, easing is still the order of the day, with the yield on ten-year Treasuries confirming its fall below 4.20%, while the German ten-year is also losing ground at 2.29%.

The oil market rallied modestly despite yesterday's announcement of a further weekly rise in US crude oil inventories.

'The recent lack of catalyst had pushed the four-week moving average ranges for WTI and Brent to their lowest levels in ten years', notes Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy at Saxo Bank.

But slowly but surely, the price of crude has started to rebound since December", observes the analyst, citing the impact of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, as well as those perpetrated by Ukrainian drones against Russian refineries.

Brent crude is currently up 0.3% at $86.4 a barrel, while US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) is up 0.5% at $81.7.

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