CAC40: weekly decline divided by 2, W-Street ignores 'confidence'.

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse slightly increased its gains (the CAC rebounded +1.
3% to 8,040, or -1.1% hebdo) in the wake of defense stocks and L'Oréal (+3.5%), while the Euro-Stoxx50 climbed +1.5%, in the wake of the DAX40, which soared +2% and returned to 23,000Pts, despite a deterioration in bond markets.

After 11 out of a possible 16 sessions of declines, operators are focusing on the US indices: the S&P500 rises +1.8% (to 5,620, or -2.5% over the week), the Nasdaq-100 rises +2.2% (back to 19,700), and the Dow Jones (+1.4%) recovers to 41,400Pts (it still loses -3.3% over the week).

Wall Street breathes a sigh of relief as the risk of a US federal government shutdown seems to have been averted.
A transparent agreement has been reached by the House, and the document still has to be approved by the Senate before midnight tonight.
A compromise seems to be in sight: Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he plans to vote for the Republican bill rather than risk another government shutdown.

Wall Street digests -as if nothing had happened- the plunge in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, from 64.7 to 57.9 in March, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary estimate.
This represents a drop of 10.5% over one month and 27.1% over one year.
Analysts were expecting a more moderate decline, of -2.5Pt to 63.2, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.

Expectations for the future deteriorated in a number of areas, including personal finances, the labor market, inflation, the business environment and stock markets', it reported.

'Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty surrounding politics and other economic factors', it added.
The consensus forecast for household sentiment was for a further decline, with the index expected to fall to 63 from 64.7 in January.

Despite this, T-Bonds are down +3.5pts to 4.311%, Bunds +2.8pts to 2.8820%, and our OATs +2.5pts to 2.5700% (the spread is narrowing to +69pts).

The publication of rather reassuring inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday should have been a reason for easing rates, but the slowdown in CPI and PPI figures was quickly ignored, as investors expected inflationary pressures to intensify under the impact of tariffs (including a 200% surcharge on European wines, champagnes and spirits).

On the Eurozone statistics front, year-on-year consumer prices in France rose by 0.8% in February, after +1.7% in January, taking the year-on-year figure below 1% for the first time since February 2021, according to Insee, which confirmed its provisional estimate.

Across the Rhine, the rise in the German consumer price index harmonized to European standards (HICP) was revised downwards to 2.6% for February, compared with 2.8% in the first reading, the Federal Statistics Office announced on Friday.

Traders are also buying gold again: the spot price has reached $3,004 (before easing to $2,985), the April contract has risen to $3,017/Oz, and silver is close to $34.5/Oz.

The geopolitical climate could improve as the US/Ukraine/Russia talks progress, but gold's trajectory doesn't seem to be taking into account the imminent signing of a peace agreement.

The oil market is also back on the rise, heading for a positive performance for the week as a whole, despite fears that the resurgence of trade tensions will weigh on growth and demand.

Brent crude oil is stalling at the $70/barrel mark, while WTI is stalling at $66.6.
On the FOREX, the euro recovers the 0.2% it lost the previous day at 1.0875, while the $-Index slips -0.05% to 103.85.

In French company news, Thales recovers its highs at 248/250 euros, while Airbus, another "defense" stock, climbs +4% to 168.5 euros.
Interparfums announces an extension of its partnership with Coach for a further five years, taking the license to June 30, 2031.

Rubis reports net income (group share) of 342 million euros for 2024, within the target range of 340 to 375 million, down 4% on a comparable basis, including 83 million euros in net capital gains from the sale of Rubis Terminal.

Airbus Helicopters said it closed the 2025 VERTICON show in Dallas with commitments for 118 helicopters, including 63 firm orders, from customers worldwide for a variety of its multi-mission helicopters.

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