CAC40: limited downturn despite VIX at +11% and Nasdaq at -3%.

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market proved remarkably resilient, with the CAC40 losing just 0.
6% to 8.070, while Wall Street started the week down -2% (averaging the Dow Jones (-0.8%), the S&P500 (-2%) and the Nasdaq-100 (-3.1% to 19,570pts)... and the VIX jumped +11% to 26.1 (and is fast approaching its annual zenith of 27.6).

In Europe, the Euro-Stoxx50 is down -1.3%, in the wake of the DAX40 at -1.5% (down from -2% around 4pm), and the Bel-20 at -1.9%.
The CAC40 is penalized by Saint-Gobain's decline (-5.1%) below its new record (106.65E), as well as by the banks with Société Générale (-5%), BNP Paribas (-2.3%) and Safran (-4%).

The political (tariff war) and geopolitical (climate of anxiety in Europe) factors could weigh on trading, much more than the economic agenda, which will remain slim over the coming days, with the publication of the latest consumer price figures (CPI) on Wall Street on Wednesday, followed by producer prices the next day.

The past week has not put an end to the outperformance of European equities since January 1, and this is confirmed on this March 10: the Euro-Stoxx50 is up +10.5%, the S&P500 is down -3.7%, the DAX40 is up +14.5%, the Nasdaq is down -8%).
However, analysts warn that a number of factors suggest that their recent performance should be viewed with caution: 'This development does not reflect an outperformance of the European economy, but rather a change in sentiment regarding the economic outlook on both sides of the Atlantic', say AXA IM's teams.

"The appeal of the 'Trump trade' seems to be waning in the face of the growing negative effects of the new US administration's policies, making some traditional aspects of 'old Europe' probably more attractive", says the asset manager.

Other professionals feel that the recent rebound could be starting to be threatened.
Although we have held a positive view on European equities relative to US equities since the beginning of December, we now advise against increasing this position, after the strongest European outperformance in 10 years", add J.Safra Sarasin's strategists.

"We still see some room for catching up in European small caps, which have not yet fully incorporated the recent improvement in European macroeconomic data", judges the Swiss private bank.

Lombard Odier also believes that some consolidation is likely over the next few weeks.

'With German equities looking overbought, the French stock market could outperform in the short term', stresses the Swiss bank.

On the statistics front, following a contraction of 1.5% in December 2024 (revised from an initial estimate of -2.4%), German industrial output in volume terms rebounded by 2% in January compared to the previous month, according to Destatis CVS-CJO data (vs. +1.5% anticipated).

On the other hand, Germany's trade surplus, according to Destatis seasonally and calendar adjusted data, contracted to 16 billion euros in January, compared with 20.7 billion the previous month.

While European bond markets suffered their worst week since early October 1998, the 10-year Bund yield eased -2.5% to 2.810%, while the OAT for the same maturity fell -3pts to 3.522%.

On the US market, with the sudden bout of risk-off, the 10-year Treasuries rate abruptly eased by -11Pts to 4.2100%, two days before the publication of consumer prices.

Currencies are calm, allowing the euro to remain unchanged at around $1.0830.

After last week's heavy decline, oil prices are sliding again: -0.9% to $69.8.

In French company news, Thales Alenia Space, a joint venture between Thales (67%) and Leonardo (33%), announces that it has signed a contract to manufacture the JSAT-32 geostationary telecommunications satellite for SKY Perfect JSAT, Asia's largest satellite operator.

Safran Helicopter Engines announces that it has signed an exclusive partnership with Robinson Helicopter Company (RHC) to power the R88 helicopter.

Sanofi reports that positive results from the pivotal Phase II/III ADEPT study evaluating its Dupixent for the treatment of moderate to severe adult bullous pemphigoid were presented at the American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) 2025 Annual Meeting

Finally, Dassault Aviation reports that its Board of Directors has decided to reduce the company's capital by cancelling 198.527 of its own registered shares, representing 0.25% of its share capital.

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