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CAC40: red lantern due to luxury goods, W-Street awaits FED

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market will remain alone on the downside this Wednesday, with the CAC40 down 0.
4% at 7,865, penalized by the decline in the luxury sector, with Kering down 5.8%, LVMH down 5.6% and L'Oréal down 2.7%.

Elsewhere in Europe, stock markets were buoyant, with the E-Stoxx50 (+0.8% to 5,240) and the DAX40 (+1% to 21,660) almost guaranteed new all-time closing highs, with Amsterdam taking 1st place with +1.1% to 910 (in the wake of ASML with +5.5%).
Wall Street has reopened on an indecisive note (scores seem to have been frozen since 4 p.m.), but this is precisely what seems to be underpinning Europe ("arbitrage" effect).
The Dow Jones gains 0.1%, but the S&P500 loses 0.3% and the Nasdaq -0.6% (a little caution before the FED statement at 8 p.m.).

After a start to the week dominated by the DeepSeek earthquake, central banks will be back in the spotlight today: logically, the Fed should conclude its first meeting of the year with a pause in its easing policy and a "status quo" on rates.

According to CME Group's FedWatch barometer, the market estimates the probability of rates remaining at current levels at over 97%.

"The central question for FOMC members is whether this 'pause' should be extended into a more prolonged 'inaction' in view of the resilience of the labor market and the jolts encountered in the disinflation process", explains Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone.

Openly criticized by Donald Trump, the Fed is likely to adopt a cautious stance this evening, reiterating its "data-dependent" approach without committing to a timetable for future rate cuts.

Faced with sluggish growth in the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to opt for a further cut in its key rates tomorrow, as it has done at its three previous meetings.

In addition to lowering the cost of credit, investors are hoping that Christine Lagarde will give some indication of the future trajectory of interest rates and their positive impact on the economy.

The major technology groups Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and IBM are due to publish their results this evening, followed by Apple and Intel tomorrow.

Strong earnings reports from the Magnificent Seven could provide the catalyst buyers are hoping for, as they seek reassurance after their recent bout of nervousness, and trigger an even more convincing rebound in risky assets", says Michael Brown of Pepperstone.

In Europe, the trend is also driven by corporate news, with Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML reporting better-than-expected Q4 results this morning... but down on the previous quarter (-3.4%).

Nevertheless, the corporate earnings season and monetary policy announcements may find it difficult to outweigh trade tensions in investors' minds.

While Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, yesterday called for the implementation of "universal" tariffs limited to 2.5% before gradual increases, Donald Trump spoke in favor of "more significant" measures.

The euro continued to slide, falling -0.3% against the dollar (1.0380), while bond markets deteriorated as they awaited central bank meetings.

Across the Atlantic, the yield on 10-year Treasuries eased to around 4.51%, while the German Bund stood at 2.543% (-1.7 basis points).

In the energy market, oil prices are losing ground as we await the release of weekly US oil inventories in the afternoon.

Brent crude is down 1% at $76.9 a barrel.

In French company news, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton last night reported 2024 sales of 84.7 billion euros, up +1% organically (-2% reported). Net income, Group share, will amount to 12.6 billion euros in 2024 (versus 15.17 billion euros in 2023).

KLM, the Dutch airline subsidiary of the Air France-KLM group, announced on Wednesday that it plans to cut 250 jobs as part of its cost-cutting plan unveiled last October.

Finally, Alstom announced that its HELION Hydrogen Power subsidiary, which specializes in high-power fuel cells, has signed a strategic partnership with M Reformer.


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