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CAC 40: a new test with US retail sales

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse is set to open on a positive note on Thursday, as it awaits US retail sales data, while reassuring US inflation figures yesterday sent a wave of optimism through the markets.


At around 8:15 a.m., the CAC 40 future contract - for delivery at the end of January - was up 43 points at 7,521 points, pointing to a continuation of the upward movement begun the previous day.

The Paris index had ended Wednesday's session with a 0.7% gain to 7,474 points, buoyed as were all world markets by the announcement of a smaller-than-expected rise in core inflation in the United States.

Following this publication, Wall Street posted its best session since last November, with gains ranging from 1.7% for the Dow Jones to 2.5% for the Nasdaq at the final bell.

Investors are now awaiting US retail sales data, due out at 2.30pm, to gauge the evolution of the economy across the Atlantic.

The consensus is for a 0.5% month-on-month rise in sales in December, which would testify to the strength of consumer demand during the key end-of-year shopping period.

The trend could also be influenced by import price figures, unemployment benefit registrations and the Philadelphia Fed index, also due in the afternoon.

In Europe, investors will be following the publication of the latest indicators on inflation in Germany, the eurozone trade balance and industrial production in the UK.

But the highlight of the day will come at 1:30pm with the publication of the minutes of the December 12 meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which resulted in a fourth rate cut in the space of six months.

At the time, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concern about the downside risks to eurozone growth.

In terms of results, the major US banks will continue to take center stage today, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley scheduled to report their quarterly results at lunchtime.

Although the latest US inflation figures are reassuring, investors may prefer to remain on the defensive until Donald Trump's inauguration, scheduled for Monday.

At the start of the week, the teams at Cogefi, a Paris-based portfolio management company, warned that "it is likely that the 2025 stock market year will really get underway on January 20".

The markets, which had initially welcomed Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and deregulate entire sectors of the economy, seem to want to wait for the new administration's first steps before really positioning themselves.

On the bond front, yields breathed a sigh of relief following the publication of the latest US inflation data, which eased the recent episode of tension.

The yield on ten-year Treasuries fell sharply to 4.65%, from over 4.80% at the start of the week, a sudden drop that also boosted European markets.

Ten-year German Bund yields are down to 2.56% and French OAT yields to 3.35%, allowing the spread between the two countries' government bonds to narrow to 79 basis points.

Crude oil prices continued their upward march, with a barrel of US light crude trading just above $80 for the first time since last summer.

Beyond US sanctions against the Russian energy sector, black gold is supported by the announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza and yesterday's publication of statistics showing a sharp drop in barrels of oil inventories in the United States last week.

This morning, a barrel of Brent gained 0.2% to $82.2, while Texas WTI was up by more than 0.2% to $80.2.

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