CAC40: weighed down by politics, OATs fall and E/$ down 1%.

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market trimmed its losses a little (thanks to "luxury" stocks with +4% for Hermès and +3.
5% for LVMH) with 30Mn to go, the CAC40 was down just under 0.5% and back above the 7,200 mark.200.
It has to be said that the trend is very positive beyond our borders, with the DAX40 (+1.3% at 18,900pts) breaking its records (despite the collapse of the industrial sector) and the Euro-Stoxx50 gaining +0.5%.

The CAC40 was penalized in particular by Stellantis, which dropped more than 6.5% following the announcement of the departure of its CEO, Carlos Tavares... while neighboring markets were boosted by 2 new absolute records on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq at 19.400 (+0.9%) and the S&P500 (+0.34%) at over 6,045Pts.
The Dow Jones is down -0.2%, the Russell-2000 is down -0.6%.


Political uncertainty in France is at its height, as Michel Barn ier has just used Art.49.3 to pass the 'sécu' budget for 2025... with the RN announcing that it will vote in favor of the motion of censure tabled by the LFI group if the government does not back down on the retirement law, and will table its own motion to be discussed this Wednesday.

And to darken the picture a little more, the Old Continent's gloomy economic outlook is weighed down by French political developments and the absence of a budget, coupled with a possible imminent fall of the government.
The French situation is clearly weighing on the euro, which is down -1% against the dollar at 1.0475.

The good news for France is that S&P has decided to maintain its rating on French debt... but the OAT/Bund spread widened sharply on Monday to +88Pts due to the political factor: our OATs downgraded by +3Pts to 2.924%, Bunds eased by -4Pts to 2.0440%.

Note: US 10-year T-Bonds tightened by +2Pts to 4.215%, the 2-year by +3.5Pts to 4.2100%.

On the statistics front, down from 46 in October to 45.2 in November, the HCOB PMI index for manufacturing industry in the eurozone, produced by S&P Global, points to a more pronounced deterioration in the sector's economic situation last month.

In France, the PMI HCOB index for the French manufacturing industry, produced by S&P Global, continued to report a deterioration in the sector's economic situation, at the fastest pace since December 2023: it fell from 44.5 in October to 43.1 in November.

Wall Street, meanwhile, welcomed 2 good figures: the Institute for Supply Management's monthly survey of the manufacturing sector (ISM) released on Monday came in at 48.4 last month, up 1.9 percentage points on the 46.5 recorded in October, while economists were expecting an average index of 47.6.

The new orders sub-index jumped to 50.4 from 47.1 in October, while the prices paid sub-index fell to 50.3 from 54.8 the previous month.
The employment sub-index rose to 48.1 from 44.4 in October.

The US manufacturing PMI - calculated by S&P Global - rose to 49.7 in November from 48.5 the previous month, and thus fell slightly below the 50 threshold that marks the boundary between expansion and contraction in the sector's activity.

S&P Global points out that a sharp slowdown in the decline in new orders played a central role in this near-stabilization of manufacturing activity, with manufacturers pointing to improved domestic demand following the presidential election.

While production fell again last month, manufacturers' production outlook for the year ahead has improved markedly, with companies in the sector hoping for favorable measures from the incoming administration.
The 'NFP' is expected this Friday: the consensus is for 200,000 jobs to be created in November, after the 12,000 announced in the first estimate for October, and for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.2% from 4.1%.

This statistic - which is particularly closely watched by the Fed - should help it to determine the timing of its next rate cuts, given that 67% of investors believe that the Fed will ease by 25 basis points on December 18, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

In this perspective, overly vigorous figures could paradoxically be poorly received by investors worried that the central bank will slow down its measures to support the economy.

In French company news, Atos announces that it has finalized the sale of its Worldgrid business to Alten for an enterprise value of 270 million euros, in accordance with the binding agreement reached on November 5 following exclusive negotiations initiated on June 11.

Carrefour reports that it has refinanced its two lines of credit, totalling 3.9 billion euros, combining them into a single line worth four billion, which incorporates two key performance indicators on decarbonization and food waste.

Finally, Saint-Gobain announces that on November 29 it finalized the sale of PAM Building, the subsidiary of Saint-Gobain PAM (pipe business) dedicated to the production of sanitary and storm drainage solutions for buildings.

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