CAC40: back above 7,200, OATs easing to below 3%.

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse posted a somewhat unexpected rebound of +0.
8% (erasing the -0.7% lost the previous day) and the CAC40 returned to the 7,200-point mark after three straight sessions in the red.
All this in volumes of less than E1bn, but in line with the predictable scenario with Wall Street closing this Thursday for Thanksgiving.

The Paris stock market seems to be bracketing political uncertainties, which continue to constitute a predominant risk from the investor's point of view.

The Barnier government's budget (in 3 parts) has still not been ratified by the National Assembly and has been sent back to the Senate where it should be amended, but with no guarantee that its final version can be validated by both Chambers.

Beyond the political question, the economic, fiscal and geopolitical worries affecting Europe are still prompting investors to be cautious, and seem to be preventing any immediate stock market recovery.

Since its all-time high in May, the CAC 40 index has fallen by 13.5% (and is down -5% since January 1), while the Euro STOXX 50 has posted a limited gain of +5.5% at this stage of the year, a far cry from the surge of over 25% posted by the S&P 500 since the start of the year.

While the volume of activity is likely to be limited today due to the closure of US financial markets for Thanksgiving, the European session was enlivened by the latest inflation figures for Germany, which rose to 2.2% (unfavorable base effect compared to November 2023 in terms of energy costs).

On Wall Street, U.S. equity markets allowed themselves a marginal consolidation session (-0.3% to -0.6%) yesterday, following a new flurry of absolute record highs, despite a strong easing movement on rates.
On the U.S. bond market, which will be closed this Thursday, the yield on 10-year Treasuries eased to 4.24% last night following the publication of an inflation indicator perfectly in line with expectations.

The New York Stock Exchange will reopen tomorrow, but only for half a day ('Black Friday').

Still on the bond front, the yield on French debt eased by -6pts to 2.959%, while its Greek equivalent erased -7pts to 2.9500%.

The German Bund eased by -2.5pts to 2.142%, with the spread between France and Germany narrowing slightly to +82 basis points (vs. +88pts on Tuesday), compared with 45 points before the June 9 dissolution.

Oil prices are little changed, as investors wait to see how OPEC+, which meets next week, will react to ongoing geopolitical tensions and current economic uncertainties.

Brent crude is down -0.3% to $73.2 a barrel, and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) is down 0.2% to just under $68.6 (not significant, market closed).


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