CAC40: at half-mast, penalized by political uncertainty

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse closed the session down 0.
72% at 7,143 points, penalized in particular by Axa (-4.3%), Société Générale (-3.5%) and STMicro (-2.4%).

In addition to Donald Trump's plans to relaunch a trade war with his partners via new tariffs, investors must also take into account the fragility of the Barnier government and public accounts in the red.

Today, we estimate the probability of the Barnier government failing to withstand a motion of censure at 50%", says François Rimeu, Senior Strategist, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management.

France is currently facing a political crisis the likes of which it has rarely experienced under the Fifth Republic, while its economic situation is also worrying', he adds.

Across the Atlantic, the Nasdaq is down 1% and the S&P500 is down 0.4%, while the Dow Jones is just holding steady.

The session just ended was marked by an impressive salvo of US indicators, released in anticipation of the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA.

The main "macro" indicator was GDP (growth of the US economy "revised" to 2nd estimate), which reached 2.8% annualized in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department points out that the upward revision to investment compared with the previous estimate was offset by a downward revision to exports and consumer spending.

In addition to the much-anticipated price "component": US PCE rose by an annualized 2.3% in October, in line with expectations, after 2.1% in September. In the core version, it rose by 2.8% year-on-year, as expected, following a 2.7% increase in September

The Labor Department announced that 213,000 new jobless claims were registered in the USA in the week ending November 18, down by 2,000 on the previous week, when the figure was revised from 213,000 to 215,000.

Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.2% between September and October (versus -0.4% in September), according to the Commerce Department.

Finally, promised sales of new homes in the US rose by 2% in October, against an expected fall of 2.1% (they had risen by 7.5% in September).

On the bond front, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries eased by -4pts to 4.265%, while its German equivalent for the same maturity fell by -3pts to 2.166.

The divergence between German Bunds and French OATs is widening, with the spread now reaching 87 basis points, its worst score since dissolution on June 9.

The dollar corrects after a new test of $1.0465/E on Tuesday, and the euro (+0.7%) takes advantage of this to return to the vicinity of the 1.0560 zone against the greenback.

In the energy sector, the oil market seems little affected by the entry into force of a ceasefire in Lebanon after two months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, with Brent stable at around $73/barrel in London.

In French company news, Airbus (+2%) announced that Emirates had taken delivery of its first Airbus A350-900, marking a key step in its fleet expansion strategy.

Thales Alenia Space unveiled the Carb-Chaser project. This program is based on a constellation of new-generation satellites, specially designed to detect and measure man-made carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, particularly those from industrial sites.

Finally, Spie announces the launch in Poland of the ECONTROLplus management system for renewable energy production facilities.

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