CAC 40: wait-and-see mood before a series of indicators

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse is expected to be in wait-and-see mode at the opening bell on Thursday, ahead of a series of indicators that should help assess the current economic situation, especially in Europe, as well as future developments in the ECB's monetary policy.


At around 8:15 a.m., the 'future' contract on the CAC 40 index - November delivery - was down 6.5 points at 7,213 points, heralding a still cautious start to the session.

After gaining up to 0.4% on Wednesday morning, then losing almost 1% by mid-afternoon, the Paris market finally ended yesterday's session with a limited decline of 0.1% to 7,216 points.

Nevertheless, European stock markets have continued to fall further behind since Donald Trump's election, with the Euro STOXX losing more than 2% over the past week, while Wall Street has set record after record.

The economic statistics expected later today are likely to illustrate the growing "decoupling" between Europe and the United States, particularly where growth is concerned.

European markets have recently been penalized by concerns about the dynamism of activity, and the announcement of the latest growth figures for the euro zone is unlikely to reassure them.

According to the first estimate - expected to be confirmed today by Eurostat - the region's GDP rose by 0.4% in the third quarter thanks to the impact of the JOs in France and a catch-up in consumption in Germany, two phenomena which are unlikely to last.

In view of the weak performance of France and especially Germany, industrial production is expected to fall by 1.3% in September, according to the consensus.

As for the "minutes" of the ECB's latest meeting, they should confirm lower-than-expected inflation and downside risks to activity, without however showing that a 50bp rate cut by the institution in December is the central scenario for activity.

After yesterday's US consumer price figures, which were in line with expectations, the market is awaiting data on producer prices in the USA, which should show a slight upturn in inflation.

Yesterday, Wall Street finished in disarray despite the tensions once again reigning in the rates market with the prospect of Donald Trump's "pro-business" policies.

At the final bell, the Dow Jones advanced by 0.1%, the S&P 500 ended around equilibrium, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%.

The resilience of New York's indices should be emphasized, given the evolution of the bond compartment, with ten-year T-Bonds now reaching 4.45%.

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