CAC 40: yesterday's rebound short-lived

(CercleFinance.com) - After the previous day's surge, the Paris Bourse is set to fall again on Tuesday morning, as investors await the publication of new indicators that could enable them to assess the ECB's forthcoming plans.


At around 8:15 a.m., the CAC 40 index futures contract - November delivery - was down 73 points at 7358.5, suggesting that a large part of the previous day's gains are likely to be wiped out by the opening bell.

Yesterday, the Paris market ended the session commemorating the Armistice of November 11, 1918, up 1.2% at 7426 points, back above the 7400-point threshold it had broken on Friday.

Despite this rebound, European stock markets have continued to underperform since the end of September, while Wall Street has been sailing from record to record.

While the Nasdaq has posted a spectacular gain of over 28% since January 1, the CAC has lost 1.5% at this stage of the year, a gap unseen for many years.

It's hardly surprising that the Old Continent's indices are languishing: not only have they been battered lately by political uncertainty, but also by sluggish growth and disappointing corporate results.

In these conditions, investors should be keen to turn their attention to economic indicators over the coming weeks.

A number of key data points will be released over the coming days in the run-up to the ECB's December interest rate decision, which could be either a 25 basis point rate cut or a 50 basis point cut.

Faced with sluggish economic conditions, markets are relying heavily on the prospect of a more accommodative monetary policy from the ECB, with the hope of a potentially more aggressive rate cut.

However, the possibility of the ECB stepping up the pace of rate cuts is not yet part of the central scenario, given the divergence of opinion that currently seems to reign within the institution.

After coming in at 1.7% in September, inflation in the eurozone should be confirmed today at 2% annualized for the month of October, which seems to remove the likelihood of a 50-point drop in December.

In Germany, the ZEW index of investor sentiment - expected later this morning - is likely to reflect the impact of the political crisis caused by the break-up of the three-party coalition last week.

But investors are still dreaming of encouraging signs that could lead to a potential upturn in activity next year.

Eurozone growth figures to be published on Thursday could also tip the balance in one direction or the other.

According to the first estimate, real GDP had accelerated to +0.4% in sequential terms, compared with +0.2% in the second, a rebound due mainly to a transitory JO effect in France and a catch-up in consumption in Germany.

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