CAC40: laborious rise, watch out for rate tension in the EU

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse laboriously clawed back 0.
5% and returned to the 7,400 mark. The CAC40 had reopened without a trend, despite Wall Street's biggest annual rise on Wednesday evening, and even in 3 years for the Dow Transportation and Russell-2000 (gains in excess of 5.5%).

But Trump's election - and his institutional grand slam in Congress - is only really creating a positive electroshock for US companies.... while the political situation in Europe is likely to create uncertainty with the break-up of the government coalition in Germany and the divorce between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Minister of the Economy, the orthodox Lindner.
The Frankfurt stock exchange (+1.4%), however, seems to be rejoicing at the prospect of early legislative elections next January, which could enable a fresh start to be made.... i.e. a policy to stimulate the economy (which has been in recession for 8 quarters).

This day is also dominated by monetary policy, with the decisions of the Bank of England (BoE) and then the Fed this evening.

In September, the Fed cut its key rates by 50 basis points, while suggesting that further cuts would be made at a more moderate pace", recalled Oddo BHF at the start of the week, judging a 25 bp cut on Thursday to be almost certain.

The political situation is not without consequences afterwards", he stressed, pointing to a greater risk of inflationary tensions in the event - since confirmed - of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election.

"He has often criticized Jerome Powell and does not look kindly on the Fed's independence. Yet it is this independence that helps anchor inflation expectations at a low level", noted the research department.

The Bank of England today announced a 25 bp rate cut, the second this year after the one at the beginning of August, against the backdrop of British inflation falling below 2% in September.

In terms of statistics, 2 figures have just been published in the US: non-farm productivity rose by an annualized 2.2% in the third quarter of 2024, according to the Labor Department's first estimate, reflecting a 3.5% rise in total output for a 1.2% increase in the number of hours worked.

This strong rise in productivity was nonetheless less than the 4.2% increase in hourly wages, a gap which translated into a 1.9% increase in US non-agricultural unit labor costs for the quarter.

The Labor Department announced that 221.000 new jobless claims in the USA last week, up by 3000 on the week of October 28, which was revised from 216,000 to 218,000.

The number of people receiving regular benefits rose by 39,000 to 1,892,000 in the week to October 21, the most recent period available for this statistic.

There were also some interesting 'macro' figures from Europe: German industrial production and eurozone retail sales for September: these rose by 0.5% in the eurozone and 0.3% in the EU, according to Eurostat, following increases of 1.1% and 0.9% respectively in August.
Yields are tightening severely in Europe, with +4.6pts on Bunds at 2.445% and +6pts on our 3.22% OATs and Italian BTPs at 3.7800%.

On the Paris quarterly publication front, investors will be able to react to Engie, Legrand, Veolia, Valneva and SES this morning, as well as Teleperformance and Bénéteau on Wednesday evening.

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