CAC40: back above 7,400 with W-Street ignoring rate hikes

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market opted for cautious optimism, but enough to erase the previous day's losses: the CAC40 recovered +0.
5% towards 7,410 and returned to square one (its pre-weekend level).

This was not a strong mobilization of buyers, as volumes remained anecdotal (1.3MnsE, starting from a base of 2.6MbnE at 5.35pm) on a day marked by American politics (election day is shaping up to be extremely indecisive, to the extent that the Democratic majority believes that the final result may not be known for several days).

Wall Street had closed slightly lower on Monday, but with gaps that only reflected "adjustments" and not easing motivated by fears that the United States was facing a "zone of uncertainty".

On Tuesday, after a cautious start to the session, the US indices are getting bolder: +1.1% on the Nasdaq (18,380), +0.9% on the S&P500 (5,760) and +0.8% on the Dow Jones.

'Trump trades are a little less buoyant. Several polls seem to indicate that the electoral momentum is on the Democratic candidate's side", notes Christopher Dembik, at Pictet Asset Management.
And he adds: "Nevertheless, nothing is certain. We are not immune to a surprise on Wednesday morning".
"Many investors fear an abrupt market reaction - for example, if the gap between the two candidates is marginal, which could lead to numerous legal disputes and delay the announcement of the winner", he continues.
This explains why the VIX has risen sharply since last week and remains close to the 22E mark.

Wall Street welcomes the nearly +20% widening of the trade deficit to -$84.4 bn in September (compared with -$70.8 bn the previous month).
According to the Commerce Department, this spectacular deterioration is the result of both a 1.2% drop in US exports of goods and services, to $267.9 bn, and a 3% increase in imports, to $352.3 bn.

On the activity front, growth in the US private sector accelerated slightly less than initially estimated in October, according to the S&P Global composite PMI, which came in at 54.1 on balance, compared with 54.3 in the flash estimate, and after 54 for the previous month.
The US services PMI - calculated by S&P Global - eased slightly in October to 55 from 55.2 the previous month, but remained well above the 50 mark that marks the boundary between expansion and contraction in the sector's activity.

S&P Global thus observed sustained growth in activity and new business, while employment continued to fall marginally and producer prices saw their weakest rise in almost four and a half years.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index, published separately, reported accelerating growth in the US non-manufacturing sector, coming in at 56 for the past month, compared with 54.9 in September.

The index thus reflects continued solid growth in the private sector, albeit with a third consecutive month of job cuts, while price inflation hit a 53-month low.

There were also figures from Europe: on Tuesday, traders took note of French industrial production: it fell over one month (-0.8% after +1.4% in August) in both manufacturing and industry as a whole (-0.9% after +1.1%), according to Insee's CVS-CJO data.

On the interest-rate front, 48 hours ahead of the FED meeting, US T-Bonds are down +5Pt to 4.36% and the 2-year to 4.21%.

In Europe, Bunds are down +3.5Pt to 2.42%, and OATs only +3Pt to 3.16%.

In the Paris stock market, Bouygues reported growth of almost 6% in recurring operating income (ROCA) for the first nine months of 2024, an improvement largely driven by its subsidiary Equans.

Michelin today announced to the 1,254 employees of its Cholet and Vannes plants its intention to cease production, at the latest by early 2026. These two plants have been facing major economic difficulties for several years.

Atos announces that it has signed a sale agreement with Alten for the sale of its Worldgrid business, which provides consulting and engineering services to energy and utility companies, for an enterprise value of 270 million euros.

Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.