CAC40: neither impacted, nor W-Street, by a heavily biased NFP

(CercleFinance.com) - The employment figures ('NFP') are spectacularly far from expectations, with +12,000 jobs created instead of the +150,000 expected.

But above all, the Labor Department and ADP (which records private sector hiring) seem to be operating on very distant planets, with Wednesday's publication of an estimate of +233,000 jobs (instead of the +160,000 at the top of the range, i.e. 50% more than expected).

On November 1st, the CAC40 slightly increased its lead to +0.7% at 7,400, the Euro-Stoxx50 gained +0.9% at 4,970 and Wall Street reopened higher after Thursday's air pocket (worst session since early August, i.e. 3 months).
The Dow Jones gained +0.8%, the S&P500 +0.7 to +0.8% and the Nasdaq (-2.8% the previous day) rebounded +0.9% to 18,260.
The US economy thus generated just 12,000 non-farm jobs in the month of March.000 non-farm jobs in October instead of +113,000 (median consensus), according to the Department of Labor (DoL), after +223,000 in September.

"Employment continued its upward trend in health care and government, while it declined in temporary help services, as well as in manufacturing due to strikes", explains the DoL.

However, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations, while the labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%, and average hourly earnings rose by 4% year-on-year.

In addition, non-farm job creations for the previous two months were revised, from 159,000 to 78,000 for August and from 254,000 to 223,000 for September, giving a total revision balance of -112,000 for these two months.

Oddo BHF warned at the beginning of the week: "The labor market has undoubtedly suffered from a number of ups and downs in October.
"The latest Beige Book reported that employment was up modestly in most districts, with wage gains moderating as a result.
But no one was anticipating a -95% drop in job creation, which means that the figure is highly 'biased' and will certainly see a sharp upward revision next month.... or so predicts Joe Biden, who was quick to make a reassuring statement on the subject.

As a result, the bond markets are not taking these +12.000 at face value, and T-Bonds are off only modestly, by -1.7Pt to 4.27% for the '10-year' and just -0.5Pt on the '30-year' to 4.4700%.

In Europe, the Bund is easing by -2Pts to 2.371%, our OATs by just -1.2Pts to 3.1200% and Italian BTPs by -2.2Pts to 3.6450%.

On the Forex front, it's very quiet, with the Euro slipping -0.05% to 1.0875, and the $-Index also posting -0.05% to 103.92.

Still on the statistics front, the session will also see the release of the PMI and ISM manufacturing indexes in the United States, while those for France and the Eurozone are not scheduled for All Saints' Day, a public holiday in several continental European countries.

In Paris, Eiffage reported that it had exceeded the thresholds of 20% and 25% of Getlink's voting rights, and now holds 20.55% of the capital and 27.56% of the voting rights, as a result of an allocation of double voting rights.

Casino reported third-quarter sales of E2.1 billion, down 5.1% as reported on the same period a year earlier (or -1.8% on a like-for-like basis). Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 came to ME402 (-24%), with a margin of 6.4%.

The Viridien geosciences group reported adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 up 7% to $298 million, and confirmed its 2024-25 financial roadmap and targets for the current year.

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