CAC40: difficult end to the month, rates rise then fall again

(CercleFinance.com) - The CAC40 (-1.
3% towards 7,530) will have to work hard to preserve the 7,350 support level by 5:35 p.m.
The objective is not unattainable, since it involves recovering 0.25% in half an hour... and an easing of rates is taking shape due to a wave of risk-offs in the equities compartment).
The Euro-Stoxx50 (-1.4%) is also in a delicate situation below 4,830Pts (this is the medium-term support to be safeguarded).

It could be said that the stock markets are "missing the last step": while the previous day, the Nasdaq had just set a new all-time record at 18,785.
The following day, the same index fell back by -2.4% to 18,160 and the S&P500 dropped -1.5% to 5,727.727, and is now close to support at 5,700 (with 5,640 in its sights).
What's not a good sign technically is the opening of "breakout gaps" on the 2 major indices (the Dow Jones, by virtue of the way it is calculated, rarely undergoes this kind of scenario).

However, there were no nasty surprises on the US index front: the PCE inflation gauge - which is closely monitored by the Fed - came in 0.2 points down on August, at 2.1% unadjusted, but stable at 2.7% underlying (excluding energy and food).

The Commerce Department, which publishes these figures, also reports that US household spending rose by 0.5% in September compared with the previous month, while incomes rose by 0.3%... again, this is in line with consensus, and consumption remains very robust (there is talk of a "wealth effect" sustained by Wall Street).

The last 'stat' is of minor importance: the Labor Department announced a drop of -12,000 in new US jobless claims - to 216,000 - last week.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came out at 236,500 for the week of October 26, down 2,250 on the previous week, an insignificant difference which can in no way explain Wall-Street's depressed mood.

The explanation for Wall Street's heaviness must therefore be sought in the fixed-income markets, with yields tightening by +2.3pts on the US '10-yr' to 4.287% (after 4.33% during the session), +1pt on the '2-yr' to 4.165% (worst score since August 1st), while the '30-yr' climbed back above 4.500%.

The day was also marked by the publication of flash inflation estimates for the month just ended, first in France at the start of the session, then - and above all - in the eurozone.

Over one year, according to Insee's provisional estimate at the end of the month, consumer prices in France are set to rise by 1.2% in October 2024, a slight increase on the 1.1% annual rate recorded in September.

Annual inflation in the eurozone is estimated at 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% the previous month, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.

'Due to a low basis of comparison, the inflation rate will recover. It had fallen to 1.7% year-on-year in September and could return to around 2%. For its part, underlying inflation should continue to erode', indicated Oddo BHF for the euro zone.

Our OATs are down +1.5pts at 3.130 (vs. 3.1800% around 3 p.m.), Bunds +1.5pts at 2.39%, and Italian BTPs +3.5pts at 3.662%.
The Euro/$ pair remains stable at 1.0860, while oil rebounds 0.3% to $73.3 in London.

In addition to these indicators, Thursday's session was once again dominated by corporate publications, such as that of Société Générale, which saw its group share of net income multiply by 4.6 in the third quarter.

Other heavyweights to have released their quarterly results since yesterday evening include TotalEnergies (-3%), BNP Paribas (-5%), offset by Sté Générale at +10.5%, Airbus, AXA, STMicro, as well as TF1, Ubisoft, Imerys and Spie (-6.5%).


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