CAC40: NFP boosts indices and the dollar, weighs down T-Bond and OAT

(CercleFinance.com) - The good economic news (US employment rebounds sharply to +254,000) is being mistaken for.
.. good news. good news.
September's NFP boosts US stock indices, and the Paris Bourse (+1.1% to 7,560) more than doubles its gains in the space of an hour, reducing the weekly loss to less than 3%.
The CAC40 also benefits from gains by Accor (+4.4%), Société Générale (+3.6%), Renault (+3.2%) and Téléperformance (+3%).

The publication of monthly employment figures in the United States also gave a boost to US indices, with the S&P500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq up 0.6% (losing just under 0.5% over the week), despite the sharp deterioration in bond markets.
The T-Bond 2034 rallied +10pts to 3.9557% (i.e. +20pts weekly, the worst since August 9), the 2-year by +13pts to 3.845%, the 30-year by +7pts to 4.2500%.

The assumption of a -50pt cut by the FED in early November falls to 20%, so it will almost certainly be -25pts.

The US economy generated 254,000 new non-farm jobs in September, according to the Labor Department, a number more than 110.000 above market expectations, which were generally in the region of 140,000 (identical to Wednesday's ADP report).
The unemployment rate also eased by 0.1 points to 4.1%, where economists had expected it to remain stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%, and average hourly earnings rose by 4% year-on-year.

Non-farm payrolls for the previous two months were also revised, from 89,000 to 144,000 for July and July respectively.000 to 144,000 for July and from 142,000 to 159,000 for August, giving a total revision balance of +72,000 for these two months.

There were also a number of figures on the menu in Europe this morning, notably in France, with a clear rise in production in manufacturing industry (+1.6% after -0.2% in July), as in all industry (+1.4% after +0.2%) in France, between July and August, according to Insee's CVS-CJO data.

The trend is negative on the European bond market, where the yield on the ten-year German Bund is up +6.5pts to 2.202%, our OATs are up +5pts to 2.985% (+6pts weekly) and Spanish bonds "only" +3.7pts to 2.962 (the gap with our OATs is widening).
Things are as bad as ever in the UK, with Gilts up 14pts at 4.1580, i.e. +18pts over the week (with levels comparable to 07/25).

On the other side of the Atlantic, benchmark bond yields are also on the rise in anticipation of US statistics, at 3.85% for ten-year US Treasuries.

The euro is resuming its slide against the greenback: it is losing -0.5% to 1.0975, i.e. almost -2% over the week around $1.10/E.

The oil market is back at more than one-month highs, with Brent at $78.5/barrel (+0.7%) and WTI (+0.7%) at $74.5 on the NYMEX.

In the news for French companies, agrifood group LDC reported sales of 2.98 billion euros for the first half of 2024-25, down 1.2% on a reported basis (-3.9% organic), despite volume growth of 4.9% (+3.6% organic).

emeis reports net income (Group share) of -257 million euros for the first six months of 2024, compared with -371 million a year earlier, and stable EBITDAR (+0.8%) at 339 million, down one point to 12.2%.

Thales announces its participation in the creation by Banque Postale, in collaboration with CB and fintech HandSome, of a bank card for the visually impaired, to be tested for six months from the end of October.

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