CAC40: stagnant, transitional session, perils remain

(CercleFinance.com) - For over 3 hours now, the CAC40 has stagnated between -0.
1% and -0.2% (pivot price 7,560), bringing the 48-hour decline to -1% (after -0.8% yesterday).
European markets remain generally directionless, while Wall Street has turned the tide: US indices had reopened slightly down, with scores ranging from -0.1% (Dow Jones), -0.2% (S&P500) and -0.3% (Nasdaq), but are now posting millimetre rises (+0.05 to +0.1%), but this is "green" for the sake of symbolism.

The news continues to be marked by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Teheran firing nearly 200 missiles at Israel last night, including hypersonic ballistic missiles.
Today, Israel is continuing its massive bombardment of southern Lebanon.... but did not retaliate against the Iranian strikes, which were 'calibrated' to cause no civilian casualties (zero Israeli deaths)... and demonstrate the impossibility of containing a massive attack with the anti-aircraft means at Tel Aviv's disposal.
The latest 'rumors' point to possible strikes against Iran's nuclear complexes... which would set the Middle East ablaze for good, but the markets refuse to believe it.

"A major escalation on Iran's part would risk dragging the United States into war, something Teheran would prefer to avoid", James Reilly reminds us.
And an attack by Iran would not leave Moscow or Beijing without a reaction: Xi-Jinping's entourage constantly warns that "international law and the territorial integrity of all countries must be respected".

In Asia, the Nikkei index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell by 2.5% at the end of the session in the face of the increasingly real risk of a conflagration in the Middle East.

The stock markets are also awaiting the employment figures due on Friday, which will once again be closely watched.
As an hors d'oeuvre, the ADP survey published at 2.15 p.m. is a small surprise that is somewhat unsettling the US bond markets.
The US private sector created 143.000 jobs in September, beating expectations as economists were expecting an average of 125,000 jobs to be created last month in the USA.
The number of jobs created in August was revised slightly upwards to 103,000, instead of the 99,000 initially announced.
The official job creation figures for September, to be published on Friday by the Labor Department, will cover both the private sector and public administration.
The consensus is balanced between those in favor of -0.5 and -0.25% in early November (40/60), with robust employment tipping the balance towards 1/4 point.
US T-Bonds, which had benefited from a wave of risk-off buying, are back up +6pts to 3.803%, while the 2-year is only up +1.6pts to 3.6370%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's latest statements suggested that the institution was in no hurry to cut rates quickly, and that its decisions would depend on economic data.

On the oil front, Brent crude climbed 1.5% to $75.8 in response to renewed tensions in the Middle East.

On the European bond market, in the absence of stats, US T-Bonds are leading the way, with Bunds up 6 points to 2.103%, our OATs up 5 points to 2.881%, and Spanish Bonos up 6 points to 2.898%.

Michel Barnier has announced a 60BnE plan to restore our finances, including 40BnE in savings and 20BnE in increased tax revenues.
The revaluation of pensions could be postponed by 6 months, which would save around 3BnE.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro is still down -0.3% against the greenback, at $1.104.

In French company news, EssilorLuxottica announced that it had finalized its previously announced acquisitions of the Supreme brand and an 80% stake in Heidelberg Engineering, both transactions having been given the go-ahead by the relevant competition authorities.

Thales announced on Wednesday that it had presented its latest innovations in UAV autonomy in support of naval operations at a military exercise in Portugal.

Lagardère News announced the launch of two new editions of ELLE, in Uzbekistan and Malaysia, bringing the total number of editions worldwide to 50, all represented by its exclusive international agency Lagardere Global Advertising.




Data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 416.9 million barrels for the week ending September 23, up 3.9 million barrels on the previous week.

The agency points out that distillate inventories - including heating oil - fell by 1.3 million barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels, compared with the previous week.

Finally, the EIA reports that refineries operated at 87.6% of their operating capacity during the same week, with average production of 9.6 million barrels/day.

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