Kering: Oddo BHF lowers target price

(CercleFinance.com) - Oddo BHF confirms its neutral rating on the share, while lowering its target price to E250 (from E309) after the analyst's revision of forecasts.


Oddo BHF's note of the day states that the environment is more difficult in Asia, with Gucci and Saint Laurent at the bottom of the wave.

The Group recalled that the start of the quarter had shown an even less favorable trend than that published for the 2nd quarter (Gucci sales down 19% y/y cc, Group sales down 11%) and that the macro-economic environment deteriorated in China over the summer, while Chinese tourism to Japan, which had boosted sales in that country (up 27% in retail in the 2nd quarter), slowed down, the broker points out.

Analysts now expect Q3 group sales to fall by 13% (Gucci -23%, Saint Laurent -11%), while they previously forecast 7% (Gucci -14%, Saint Laurent -6%). The expected improvement is modest in Q4, with Group sales now at -9% (vs. -2% prec.), i.e. Gucci at -17% and Saint Laurent at -7% (vs. -7% and -3% prec.). For 2025, group growth has been revised downwards from 6.2% to 3.5%, with Gucci at +1% and Saint Laurent at +3%, they add.

The analyst has also reduced his EBIT forecasts: -10% for 2024 and-15% for 2025. The 2025 group EBIT margin is now expected to be 16%, with Gucci at 22%. Analysts previously forecast 19.5% for the group and 24% for Gucci.


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