UMG: Oddo BHF remains Buy after investor day

(CercleFinance.com) - Oddo BHF reiterates its Outperform rating and its target price of E32, following yesterday's presentation of new targets at its CMD in London.


The company announced new guidance for the period to 2028, the main one being an average growth in adjusted EBITDA of 10%.

This target is in line with our expectations, which are unchanged. The company's message was positive on the structural trend for paid streaming (around 50% of its sales), therefore invalidating the most pessimistic theses of the consensus evoking a structural slowdown, notably in volumes, Oddo BHF says.

Despite the slight (and often underestimated) volatility of its business, the long-term outlook remains very solid. UMG thus offers clear visibility over the long term, which is rare in the media sector, and justifies our Outperform opinion, the broker adds.

In terms of 2028 guidance, the Group is now targeting average growth in consolidated sales of 7%, average growth in Pay-TV Streaming sales of 8 to 10% (of which 50% price effect and 50% volume effect) and a 10% average in adjusted EBITDA, and therefore an increase in margin.


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