CAC40: attempts to preserve 7650, our OATs relax further

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse (-0.
7% towards 7,650) is cutting its losses a little, after losing more than -1% (towards 7,618), as trading volumes have expanded significantly since 3:30 p.m. (W-Street opening), with more than 2.2 billion euros traded, compared with just 1.3 billion euros 1 hour earlier.


The CAC40 is clearly penalized by Airbus: the European aircraft manufacturer is down by more than 10.5% (towards 132E) following the publication of a downward revision of its delivery forecasts for 2024, following supply chain problems.

The aircraft manufacturer now expects only 770 aircraft deliveries this year, compared with 800 up to now, and will not reach its target of 75 aircraft per month until 2027.
The Euro-Stoxx50 is down just -0.4%, despite Airbus, the CAC's -0.8% and the DAX40's -1% towards 18.150nvda.
Wall Street reopened mixed, with -0.4% for the Dow Jones, +0.2% for the S&P500 and +0.8% for the Nasdaq, towards 17,630Pts (in the wake of Nvidia, which recovered +4% towards $121.8).

In Paris, the US markets are taking a back seat to politics: the programs of the 3 main contenders are being criticized for their "lack of realism", and even their danger to the French economy (sudden halt in activity and capital flight). Investors should refrain from taking any overly outspoken positions while awaiting the first round of legislative elections in France, the outcome of which will prove decisive for the country's future.

Whatever the outcome, the teams at Apicil, an asset management specialist, expect a political risk premium to persist in France over the coming year.

Since the announcement of the dissolution, the markets have corrected significantly, but in a coherent manner", says the social protection group.

Risk-taking will remain limited on Wall Street ahead of Friday's release of the PCE price index, a measure of inflation particularly closely watched by the Fed.

On the stats front, US consumer confidence worsened in June, but to a slightly lesser extent than expected, according to the index published on Tuesday by the Conference Board.

The index for the month just ended stands at 100.4, whereas economists were expecting it to reach 100. The index for May was revised downwards to 101.3 from 102.

The sub-index of consumer sentiment on the present situation rose to 141.5 from 140.8 the previous month, but that on the future situation fell to 73 from 74.9 in May.

According to ConfBoard, the strength of the labor market is currently offsetting household concerns about the future.

Investors are also looking forward to the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, scheduled for Thursday evening, in the run-up to the presidential election in November.

On the bond front, however, the week got off to a good start, with the spread between French OATs and German Buns narrowing to 71.5 basis points: our OATs eased -3.3pts to 3.114%, Bunds -2.2pts to 2.4000%.
Italian BTPs remain stable at 3.93%, i.e. +2Pts spread at +153Pts

On the US market, the yield on 10-year Treasuries remains fixed for the 3rd session at around 4.2450/4.2500%.
On the oil front, prices are stabilizing after two consecutive weeks of gains. Brent North Sea crude is down -0.4% at $85.8 a barrel.


In French company news, Société Générale has announced the completion of its share buyback program launched on May 27: 11,718,771 ordinary shares have been bought back by the bank for a total of 279.8 million euros and will shortly be cancelled.

Air Liquide plans to invest up to $850 million to build, own and operate four large modular air separation units and related infrastructure at the largest oxygen production facility in the Americas.

Capgemini reports that it has signed an agreement to acquire D+I, one of Australia's leading product design and development consultancies, with R&D laboratories in Sydney, Melbourne and Newcastle.

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