TF1: shares fall after Sébastien Chenu's statements

(CercleFinance.com) - The share price fell by more than -6% after Sébastien Chenu, debater and vice-president of the Rassemblement National (RN), indicated yesterday on BFM TV that the party might consider privatizing public broadcasting (and therefore France Télévisions and Radio France) if it wins the next legislative elections (06/30 and 07/07), points out Oddo BHF in its analysis of the day.


This project had already been mentioned by the RN during the 2022 presidential election.

As far as TV is concerned, it would therefore only concern: France 2 (general interest), France 3 (regional channels), France 5 (general interest) and France Info (news), i.e. a total audience share of around 28%.

If this project were to go ahead, it would naturally be very negative for private players. The French market would not be able to absorb such an increase in competition. However, we believe it would be very difficult to undertake, and the market situation could make such a total privatization impossible," says Oddo BHF.

For the time being, the research firm is reiterating its Outperform rating on TF1 (target E13) and Neutral rating on M6 (target E18).

Such a privatization could lead to a sharp drop in sales and therefore margins for the current private players," stresses the analyst.

In this context, other options could be considered: 1/ partial privatization, for example with the sale of France 2 or France 5; 2/ the status quo, but a major restructuring of France Télévisions and Radio France (cost-cutting). At first glance, a mix of these two scenarios seems to us the most credible prospect in the event of a RN victory' adds Oddo BHF.

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