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Diageo: Stifel still a buyer

( - Stifel maintains its "buy" rating on Diageo shares, also maintaining its target price of 4,400 pence for them.

Diageo's management pointed out that Scotch is its flagship product, accounting for 27% of consolidated sales in the first half of the year.

Diageo leads the Scotch category, almost twice (1.9 times) the size of its most direct competitor.

In the US, Diageo has almost 40% share of the scotch category, with gains of ~300bp over the last three years, reports Stifel.

Nevertheless, in the first half of the year, Diageo's organic sales growth was just 3% (2% growth in spirits), with volumes that are down 4%. According to management, 'premiumisation' is at a standstill, Stifel adds.

Against this backdrop, Diageo has not provided any specific guidance for 2023, but neither is it calling into question its medium-term guidance (2023-2025), i.e. organic sales growth of 5% to 7% and organic EBIT growth of 6% to 9%.

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