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Verallia: Oddo BHF still buying, but trims TP

( - Oddo BHF maintains its 'outperform' rating on Verallia shares, with a target price reduced from E47 to E45.

Oddo BHF believes that the main disappointment in 2024 guidance stems from the spread effect, which will be largely negative in 2024 (-E138m e).

According to the broker, we can expect a 10% decline in EBITDA in 2024 (guidance around E1bn), with H1 particularly under pressure (-35% estimated).

For 2025, the group should return to a better momentum, provided that the market returns to normative growth estimated at 2%.

We are revising up our 2025 EBITDA estimate by 5% to E1,100m, Oddo BHF says, noting that the consensus is slightly lower at E1,086m.

The dividend 54% increase (initial target of +10%/year) to E2.15 (yield of >6%) for 2023 results is a good indicator of the strength of its financial structure (leverage of 1.2x vs. 1.6x) and management's confidence in its medium-term prospects, the broker concludes.

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