CAC40: algorithmic straitjacket, oil near record lows
(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse has been consolidating horizontally since 9:00 this morning, with volumes as anemic as ever (1.
3 billion euros in 8 hours of trading) and within narrow limits (-0.2%), in algorithmic straitjacket mode on Thursday.
The CAC40 -at 7,4254/7,430- remains close to its best mark since early August (7,450 the previous day).
The Paris index is penalized by Teleperformance (-3.7%), Sanofi and Unibail (-2%).
From a technical point of view, chartists are pointing out that the CAC 40 looks set to break out of the congestion zone in which it has been consolidating for several months.
'A breach of this pivotal level would relaunch the upward movement towards the 7.537 and then the upper part of the horizontal channel at 7592 points', say Kiplink's teams.
'A breach of this major resistance would reactivate the long-term uptrend, with 8015 points as the target', the brokerage even predicts in its latest market update.
Meanwhile, the euro-Stoxx50 also dropped -0.3% (to 4,470, after 4,500 the previous day), as did the E-Stoxx600, while Wall Street opted for a bullish bias with +0.6% for the S&P500 and +1.1% for the Nasdaq, which is on course for its best close since July 31 (above 14,300pts).
US indices extended their gains following the publication of weekly jobless claims, which unexpectedly fell by -2,000 to 220,000 in the last week of November, when retail sales are usually slashed after the Thanksgiving weekend.
On the other hand, "durable" job registrations fell sharply, with -64,000 to 1.86 million, proof that hiring was strong last month... an interesting indicator on the eve of the release of the "NFP".
Reminder: the previous day, ADP had published a sharp drop in private sector job creation in November (to 103,000).000).
T-Bonds are down 4.5 basis points at 4.17%, after having shed 87 basis points in 6 weeks.
With 24 hours to go before the publication of the monthly US employment figures, investors are taking a more cautious, wait-and-see attitude, knowing that a weak figure could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Conversely, better-than-expected indicators could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of recalibrating its monetary policy.
'There is a risk that if the US employment figures (...) or the central bank speeches scheduled for next week do not go in the direction of a rapid start to the easing cycle, this will lead to high volatility in long rates, which will inevitably be reflected in equities', warns Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM. We need to be vigilant", warns the analyst.
To such an extent that some strategists are wondering whether the stock market's rise this autumn has gone too far too fast.
The markets have tipped into a mild euphoria in recent weeks, taking for granted the advent of a "goldilocks" scenario in the coming months (an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold).
This morning, investors took note of a slight reduction in France's trade deficit in October, thanks to an easing of the energy bill, which led to a fall in imports.
The balance of trade showed a deficit of 8.5 billion euros, an improvement of 200 million euros according to the seasonally and working-day adjusted figures unveiled this Thursday by the French customs authorities.
Across the Rhine, following a 1.3% decline in September, German industrial production fell by 0.4% in October compared with the previous month, according to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data from Destatis.
Eurostat confirms a 0.1% contraction in GDP in the Eurozone in Q3, and stagnation in the EU as a whole.
This resulted in a further easing of European yields, with Bunds and OATs (at 2.74%) down 2 points, and Italian BTPs down 1.5 points.
Oil halted its debacle and recovered 0.52% to $74.63, after hitting a low of $74.4 in London this morning, representing a loss of -13% since January 1.
It should be noted that Crown Prince Bin Salmane is receiving Vladimir Putin today on a state visit to Saudi Arabia: these are the world's 2 biggest producers of black gold, on a par with the United States: the statements of the 2 protagonists will have to be closely scrutinized, while 'WTI' remains close to lows of $69.5.
In the news for French companies, Saint-Gobain announced that it had reached an agreement with Soprema to sell a majority stake in its polyisocyanurate (PIR) foam insulation business operating in the UK under the Celotex brand.
Saint-Gobain also announced the acquisition of Menkol Industries Private Limited, an operation that 'strengthens its positioning in high value-added specialty building materials in a very dynamic Indian market'.
Societe Generale has signed two agreements with the Vista Group to sell its entire stake in its African subsidiaries Societe Generale Burkina Faso and Banco Societe Generale Mozambique, currently held at 52.6% and 65% respectively.
Finally, Sanofi announces that its Sarclisa Phase III trial has met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients not eligible for transplantation.
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