CAC40: settles above 8100, supported by banks

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market ended the session with a gain of 0.
5%, driven by the banking sector with notably +3% for BNP Paribas and +2.5% for Société Générale. The Paris index showed striking resilience compared with the dynamics on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones dropped 0.7% behind the S&P500 (-1%) and the Nasdaq (-1.5%).

On the bond front, 10-year US T-Bonds eased -1pt to 4.296%, while yields on German Bunds of the same maturity tightened by 1pt to 2.81% and OATs by 1.6pt to 3.49%.

Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone, believes that the positive start to the week (observed on Monday) could be considered 'the calm before the storm', given the busy calendar for the days ahead.

'This includes, of course, today's Trump-Putin call, five G10 central bank decisions, as well as results from Micron and FedEx, on top of a fairly busy data calendar', stresses Michael Brown, who finally points to uncertainty over US trade policy.

On the statistics front, US industrial production rose by a further 0.7% in February, according to the Fed, following a modest sequential gain of 0.3% in January (revised from an initial estimate of 0.5%),

. The Fed points out that manufacturing production itself rose by 0.9%, boosted by an 8.5% jump in the motor vehicles and parts index, without which it rose by just 0.4%.

The capacity utilization rate in US industry improved by 0.5 points to 78.2% in February, a level still 1.4 points below its long-term average (1972-2024).

US import prices rose by 0.4% in February on the previous month (+0.3% excluding fuel), i.e. +2% on an annual basis, while export prices increased by 0.1% (both gross and excluding agricultural commodities), i.e. +2.1% on 1 year.

The pleasant surprise of the day, given the recent tension in long rates, was the 11.2% jump in US housing starts in February (1,501,000 units annualized).
The Commerce Department reports that US building permits - which are supposed to foreshadow future housing starts - edged down by 1.2% to 1,456,000 last month, while housing completions fell by 4% to 1,592,000.

In Europe, the eurozone's trade surplus fell slightly to 14 bn euros in January, compared with 14.2 bn in December 2024, with a slightly stronger increase in imports (+2.3%) than in exports (+2.1%), according to Eurostat's seasonally-adjusted data.

Meanwhile, the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany once again showed a sharp rise in expectations in the March survey: at 51.6, it rose by 25.6 points, its biggest month-on-month increase since January 2023.
Germany's almost 'existential' shift to a debt-backed economy (euphoric for the business community.

'The more positive mood is probably due to positive signals regarding future German fiscal policy, such as the agreement on the multi-billion euro financial envelope for the federal budget', argues Achim Wambach.

Finally, the publication of UK inflation figures, originally scheduled for today, has been postponed until next week.

The 'fact of the day' will probably remain the new all-time record for the ounce of gold set at midday today at $3.038/Oz (+15.5% since January 1, +41% since March 18, 2024), while the ounce of silver is close to $34.

Brent crude oil is down 0.2% to $70.8 a barrel, while the euro is stabilizing against the dollar at 1.0930 (+0.1%).

In other French company news, Bolloré reports net income - including significant changes in scope of consolidation - of 1.82 billion euros for 2024, compared with 268 million the previous year, but EBITA of one million euros, compared with 61 million in 2023.

Interparfums announces the acquisition of all intellectual property rights relating to Maison Goutal -known for lines such as L'Eau d'Hadrien and Petite Chérie- held by Amorepacific Europe worldwide, a transaction whose financial terms are not specified.

Lastly, Vinci Energies reports this morning that it acquired Holtermann Regeltechnik on February 28, thereby expanding its portfolio in building automation.


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