CAC40: remains stable in the absence of Wall Street

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse began the session close to equilibrium, in a market that was once again expected to be calm, as Wall Street's session was cut short following yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday.
The CAC 40 index is trading unchanged at around 7178 points.

In the absence of American investors, the Paris market managed to stage a timid recovery on Thursday, ending the session with a 0.5% gain at 7179 points.

Despite this surge, the underperformance of the Paris market, and of European stock markets in general, remains as glaring as ever, due to the political, economic and geopolitical uncertainties currently plaguing the Old Continent.

For the week as a whole, the CAC 40 is currently down around 1%, while the Euro STOXX 50 is virtually unchanged.

Investors will be hoping for some reassurance at the end of the morning with the eurozone inflation figures, which could reassure them that the ECB is likely to introduce support measures to revive faltering growth.

Thomas Giudici, manager at Salamandre (Auris Gestion), points out that "the zone is clearly penalized by weak domestic demand, and the fear of new customs duties in the United States is undermining the confidence of business leaders, who still can't count on the Chinese recovery.

The ECB therefore has no choice but to step up the pace of rate cuts, despite persistently strong wage growth", says the professional.

Due to a less favorable base effect, core inflation is expected to reach 2.8% in the eurozone in November, compared with 2.7% in October.

Preliminary figures published yesterday in Germany and Spain highlighted a re-acceleration in price dynamics, mainly in the services sector, but economists judge that these statistics are not such as to rule out the scenario of a possible 50 basis point rate cut by the ECB next month.

In France, according to the provisional one-year estimate made at the end of the month, consumer prices would rise by 1.3% in November 2024, according to Insee, after +1.2% in October.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms rose by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024, according to Insee, boosted by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, Wall Street will only reopen for half a trading session today for Black Friday, which is expected to focus on retail stocks.

This promotional day - which kicks off the key end-of-year shopping period and sees consumers flocking to stores or online to take advantage of commercial offers - generally does well for the consumer sector.

However, we shouldn't expect any fireworks this year", warns one trader.

"Given the disappointing stock market performances recently posted by retailers such as Macy's, it's clear that the market doesn't have high expectations for the holiday season", he points out.

For the time being, futures contracts on the major New York indices are trading between 0.2% and 0.4% higher, suggesting a slightly positive opening on Wall Street this afternoon.

But trading volumes are likely to be particularly low, with many investors opting to "bridge the gap" during this period of low market activity.

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