TotalEnergies: outlines 3 energy development scenarios

(CercleFinance.com) - In order to contribute to the public debate on the energy transition, TotalEnergies has published the 6th edition of its 'TotalEnergies Energy Outlook', which presents three possible scenarios for the evolution of demand and the global energy system up to 2050, with varying degrees of decarbonization.


The first scenario, called 'Trends', reflects the current trajectory of the various countries up to 2030, and anticipates technological developments and public policies in line with current trends. It projects a temperature rise of... +2.6°-2.7°C by 2100.

The 'Momentum' scenario is based on a forward-looking approach that takes into account the decarbonization strategies of Net Zero 2050 ('NZ50') countries, as well as the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) of other countries. It forecasts +2.2-2.3°C, both exceeding the Paris target.

Finally, the 'Rupture' scenario is designed to achieve a temperature rise of less than 2°C by 2100. Moving from Trends to Rupture requires an 80% increase in installed solar and wind power capacity in India and the Global South by 2030... This scenario leads to an estimated temperature rise of between +1.7° and +1.8°C by 2100.

Unsurprisingly, TotalEnergies reiterates that low-carbon electrification is crucial to reducing emissions, that public policies must favor the substitution of fossil fuels with electricity, replace coal with renewable energies, and reduce methane emissions, while supporting international cooperation for the deployment of affordable technologies.

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