CAC40: falls to 7350 points in the wake of Wall Street

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market closed down 1.
05% at 7350 points, penalized by declines in BNP Paribas (-4.2%), Capgemini (-3.4%) and TotalEnergies (-2.9%).

The Euro-Stoxx50 (-1.3%) is also in a delicate situation below 4830 Pts (this is the medium-term support to be safeguarded).

Across the Atlantic, indices are also in the red, with -2.3% for the Nasdaq, -1.4% for the S&P500 and -0.7% for the Dow Jones.

However, there were no nasty surprises on the US index front: the 'PCE' inflation gauge - closely watched by the Fed - came in 0.2 points down on August, at 2.1% on a gross basis, but stable at 2.7% on an underlying basis (excluding energy and food).

The Commerce Department, which publishes these figures, also reported that US household spending rose by 0.5% in September compared with the previous month, while their incomes rose by 0.3%.... again, this is in line with consensus, and consumption remains very robust (there is talk of a "wealth effect" maintained by Wall Street).

Finally, the Labor Department recorded 216,000 new registrations for unemployment benefits in the USA, down 12,000 on the previous week.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came out at 236,500 for the week of October 26, down 2,250 on the previous week, an insignificant difference which in no way explains Wall Street's depressed mood.

The explanation for Wall Street's heaviness must therefore be sought in the fixed-income markets, with yields tightening by +2.3pts on the US '10-yr' to 4.28% (after 4.33% during the session), +1pt on the '2-yr' to 4.16% (worst score since August 1st), while the '30-yr' climbed back above 4.50%.

The day was also marked by the publication of flash estimates of inflation for the month just ended, first in France at the very start of the session, then - and above all - in the eurozone.

Over one year, according to the provisional estimate produced by Insee at the end of the month, consumer prices in France are set to rise by 1.2% in October 2024, a slight increase on the 1.1% annual rate recorded in September.

Annual inflation in the eurozone is estimated at 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% the previous month, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.

'Due to a low basis of comparison, the inflation rate will recover. It had fallen to 1.7% year-on-year in September and could return to around 2%. For its part, underlying inflation should continue to erode', indicated Oddo BHF for the euro zone.

Our OATs are down +1.5Pt to 3.13% (vs. 3.18% around 3 p.m.), Bunds +1.5Pt to 2.39%, and Italian BTPs +3.5Pts to 3.66%.
The Euro/$ pair remained stable at $1.0860/E, while oil gained 0.1% to $73.1 in London.

In addition to these indicators, Thursday's session was once again dominated by corporate publications, such as that of Société Générale, which saw its net income (group share) multiply by 4.6 in the third quarter. The stock gained nearly 12% at the close.

In other French company news, BNP Paribas reports a 5.9% increase in net income (group share) to 2.87 billion euros for the third quarter of 2024, representing an 11.2% increase in EPS to 2.38 euros, with gross operating income (GOI) up 4.2% to 4.73 billion.

TotalEnergies reports adjusted net income of $4.07 billion for the third quarter of 2024, compared with $6.45 billion a year earlier, 'in a bearish oil environment, with refining margins down sharply'.

FDJ announces that the European Commission has concluded that no state aid was involved in its privatization, but has reassessed the balancing payment for securing its exclusive rights, raising it from €380 million to €477 million, an adjustment of +€97 million.

Finally, Airbus announces the signature of two strategic contracts with the Organisation Conjoint de Coopération en matière d'Armement (OCCAR) to support the A400M program.


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