M6: Oddo BHF still neutral

(CercleFinance.com) - Sébastien Chenu, founder and vice-president of Rassemblement National (RN), said yesterday on BFM TV that the party could consider privatising public broadcasting (and therefore France Télévisions and Radio France) if it wins the next legislative elections (due on 06/30 and 07/07), according to Oddo BHF.


This project had already been mooted by RN during the 2022 presidential election.

Following this announcement, the research department is currently reiterating its Outperform rating on TF1 (target E13) and Neutral rating on M6 (target E18).

As far as TV is concerned, the project would only affect France 2 (general interest), France 3 (regional channels), France 5 (general interest) and France Info (news), representing a total audience share of around 28%.

If this project were to go ahead, it would naturally be very negative for private players. The French market would not be able to absorb such an increase in competition. However, we believe that it would be very difficult to undertake, and the market situation could make total privatisation impossible, Oddo BHF says.

Such a privatisation could lead to a sharp drop in sales, and therefore margins, for the current private players, the analyst says.

In this context, other options could be considered: 1/ partial privatisation, for example with the sale of France 2 or France 5; 2/ the status quo, but a major restructuring of France Télévisions and Radio France (cost-cutting). At first glance, a mix of these two scenarios seems to us the most credible prospect in the event of a RN victory, Oddo BHF adds.


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