Airbus: Goldman Sachs revises delivery forecasts
(CercleFinance.com) - Following bottom-up assessments of airline delivery plans and Airbus' statements, Goldman Sachs has updated its delivery forecasts, mainly on the A320 and A350.
"On A320 we now expect production rates to be held at 40 aircraft per month until the end of Q1 2021. We then expect production rates to step up to 45 per month (Exhibit 2). This increase in output, coupled with an unwind in inventory results in a significant step-up in deliveries yoy — from 389 in 2020E to 540 in 2021E," the broker said.
"We model slightly fewer deliveries for A350 this year, down to 50 (vs. 63 previously). We defer some A380 deliveries out of 2020, we previously forecast five deliveries this year, we now model three per year 2020-22E," Goldman Sachs adds.
"On A330 we also defer some deliveries out of 2020 and model a catch up in 2022".
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The information and analyses distributed by Cercle Finance are only intended as decision-making support for investors. Cercle Finance's responsibility may not be entailed, either directly or indirectly following the use of such information and analyses by readers. Any non-professional investor is recommended to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. This indicative information in no way constitutes any invitation to sell or buy securities.
"On A320 we now expect production rates to be held at 40 aircraft per month until the end of Q1 2021. We then expect production rates to step up to 45 per month (Exhibit 2). This increase in output, coupled with an unwind in inventory results in a significant step-up in deliveries yoy — from 389 in 2020E to 540 in 2021E," the broker said.
"We model slightly fewer deliveries for A350 this year, down to 50 (vs. 63 previously). We defer some A380 deliveries out of 2020, we previously forecast five deliveries this year, we now model three per year 2020-22E," Goldman Sachs adds.
"On A330 we also defer some deliveries out of 2020 and model a catch up in 2022".
Copyright (c) 2020 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
The information and analyses distributed by Cercle Finance are only intended as decision-making support for investors. Cercle Finance's responsibility may not be entailed, either directly or indirectly following the use of such information and analyses by readers. Any non-professional investor is recommended to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. This indicative information in no way constitutes any invitation to sell or buy securities.