Casino: Oddo BHF confirms 'underperform' rating
(CercleFinance.com) - Oddo BHF is maintaining its Underperform rating on Casino shares, with a target price of E0.
05, after Casino announced its 2028 strategic plan, against a backdrop of financial constraints.
Announced in November, the plan dubbed 'Renouveau 2028' targets a
sales CAGR of 0.8% over 2024/2028 (vs. +3.7% for GMV) with the continued transformation of its store base towards more franchises (from 83% franchised to 90% in 2028).
However, even though the group managed to achieve this (perfect execution and stable underlying market), it would still be too indebted for a rerating, the analyst says, who believes that, in any case, a further restructuring and/or capital increase will be necessary to bring it back into line with market financial standards.
By (generously) applying the same EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT multiples as Carrefour, Casino's valuation would be negative up to and including 2028. In order to justify the current share price, we would have to use EBITDA 2031 with a 2025 multiple discounted to today, the broker concludes.
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The information and analyses distributed by Cercle Finance are only intended as decision-making support for investors. Cercle Finance's responsibility may not be entailed, either directly or indirectly following the use of such information and analyses by readers. Any non-professional investor is recommended to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. This indicative information in no way constitutes any invitation to sell or buy securities.
The information and analyses published by Cercle Finance are intended solely as a decision-making aid for investors. Cercle Finance cannot be held responsible, directly or indirectly, for the use of information and analyses by readers. Uninformed investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before investing. This information does not constitute an invitation to sell or a solicitation to buy.
05, after Casino announced its 2028 strategic plan, against a backdrop of financial constraints.
Announced in November, the plan dubbed 'Renouveau 2028' targets a
sales CAGR of 0.8% over 2024/2028 (vs. +3.7% for GMV) with the continued transformation of its store base towards more franchises (from 83% franchised to 90% in 2028).
However, even though the group managed to achieve this (perfect execution and stable underlying market), it would still be too indebted for a rerating, the analyst says, who believes that, in any case, a further restructuring and/or capital increase will be necessary to bring it back into line with market financial standards.
By (generously) applying the same EV/EBITDA or EV/EBIT multiples as Carrefour, Casino's valuation would be negative up to and including 2028. In order to justify the current share price, we would have to use EBITDA 2031 with a 2025 multiple discounted to today, the broker concludes.
Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
The information and analyses distributed by Cercle Finance are only intended as decision-making support for investors. Cercle Finance's responsibility may not be entailed, either directly or indirectly following the use of such information and analyses by readers. Any non-professional investor is recommended to consult a professional advisor before making any investment decision. This indicative information in no way constitutes any invitation to sell or buy securities.
The information and analyses published by Cercle Finance are intended solely as a decision-making aid for investors. Cercle Finance cannot be held responsible, directly or indirectly, for the use of information and analyses by readers. Uninformed investors are advised to consult a professional advisor before investing. This information does not constitute an invitation to sell or a solicitation to buy.