CAC40: 'fait accompli' of censorship, rate easing + E/$ rise

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market climbed 0.
2 points on Thursday, to around 7,000 points, led by a trio of +4% shares from Stellantis, Accor and Société Générale.

The adoption of the motion of censure aimed at toppling the Barnier government was an archetypal example of a 'non-event'.
While the overthrow of the government has had the effect of opening up a new political period of uncertainty, analysts point out that the Paris index is weathering the political turbulence rather well, following the example of the European markets (up from +0.4 to +0.5%).
As a sign that the "censure" is not worrying Forex traders, the Euro is back up by more than 0.45% to 1.0560 on the "fait accompli".
Trading has been a little stagnant since mid-day, given the absence of a trend on Wall Street: while the Nasdaq (+0.1%) has set a new all-time record, it has done so "on the margin", the S&P500 has been trading in a 0.05% range for the past 45 minutes, and the Dow Jones has lost -0.1%.

No reaction to today's US statistics: the US trade deficit fell sharply to $73.8 billion in October, compared with the previous month's $83.8 billion (which was revised from an initial estimate of $84.4 billion), according to the Commerce Department.

This 11.9% month-on-month decline in the deficit resulted from a 4% contraction in US imports of goods and services, to $339.6 billion, thus outstripping a 1.6% drop in exports, to $265.7 billion.
On the eve of the publication of the NFP, the Labor Department announced that 224,000 new U.S. jobless claims were registered last week, up 9,000 on the previous week.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - stood at 218,250 for the week to November 30, up 750 on the previous week.

Finally, the number of people receiving regular unemployment benefits fell by 25,000 to 1,871,000 in the week to November 23, the most recent period available for this statistic.
US T-Bonds are unaffected by the rise in unemployment: they could have eased, but they are down +2.5pts to 4.2060%, and the 2-year is up +4pts to 4.1670%.

While the yield on French OATs stands at 2.878/2.882% (-1.5Pts in 24H), the German Bund is at 2.105% (+5Pts), meaning that the yield differential between Germany and France has fallen back below 80 basis points (almost -101Pts in 1 week).

We're a long way from a financial crisis scenario", says Christopher Dembik.

In a sign of traders' appetite for all assets with strong upward potential, bitcoin broke through the symbolic $100,000 barrier overnight for the first time in its history.000 for the first time in its history (record raised to $104,000), buoyed by hopes of a deregulation of the cryptocurrency sector with Donald Trump's forthcoming return to the White House.

In France, manufacturing output was stable in October on a month-on-month basis (after -0.7% in September), and virtually stable in industry as a whole (-0.1% after -0.8%), according to Insee's CVS-CJO data.

Note that in Germany, new orders in volume terms in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.5% in October 2024 compared with the previous month, according to Destatis CVS-CJO data, following a 7.2% jump in September.

In other French company news, Safran (-5%) forecast sales growth of around 10% in 2025, operating income before non-recurring items of between 4.7 and 4.8 billion euros, and free cash flow of between 2.8 and 3 billion.

Spie announces the signing of an agreement to acquire 100% of Corporate Software, a Swiss company founded in 2011 that 'has established itself as a benchmark IT services and consulting provider'.

Finally, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) reports that it has acquired a 38.9% stake in URW Germany GmbH and related entities (URWG) from its joint venture partner Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments).

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