Paris: green but risk of trade war persists

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market gained 0.
66% to 7906 points, driven in particular by Dassault Systèmes, which took 8.9% after announcing better-than-expected results and AI projects (see below).

Across the Atlantic, Wall Street was in the green, with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, the S&P500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, led by Palantir, which soared 25% on the back of results 10% ahead of expectations.

In France, investors were reassured by the absence of any risk of censure of the Bayrou government, despite a budget "that goes to no one" and a government at odds with the French vote at the beginning of July.
Concerns remain, however, about the return of a US/rest of the world trade war, and in particular its consequences for global growth.

Nevertheless, Mexico has managed to negotiate and obtain a one-month grace period in return for the dispatch of 10,000 men to secure the border with the United States.

Washington also suspended customs duties against Canada after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced reinforcements at the border to limit drug trafficking, especially the smuggling of fentanyl, an opioid that is wreaking havoc across the Atlantic.

For its part, China announced on Tuesday the implementation of retaliatory measures to Donald Trump's new tariffs, imposing taxes on hydrocarbons and launching an investigation against Google.

But Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to hold talks with his American counterpart later today, suggesting a possible softening of their respective positions.

While some uncertainty persists, we note that the American president remains open to discussion and that he barks more than he bites", commented Danske Bank analysts.

Asian stock markets welcomed the news, as illustrated by the 0.7% rebound by Tokyo's Nikkei, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbed a more substantial 2.4%.

I think traders are already beginning to tire of these trade issues and would prefer to return to the previous regime, which was based on the appreciation of economic data, growth and monetary policies, but here we are again", says Chris Weston, Director of Research at Pepperstone.

On the statistics front, following a 0.8% decline in November 2024 compared with the previous month (revised from the initial estimate of -0.4%), US industrial orders contracted by 0.9% in December, according to the Commerce Department.

For their part, US industrial shipments rose by 0.6% in December compared with the previous month. Finally, with inventories up 0.4%, the inventory-to-delivery ratio eased slightly from 1.47 to 1.46 month-on-month.


The economic calendar is set to accelerate over the next few days, culminating on Friday with the US employment report for January.

This busy schedule raises hopes of a scenario in which market fundamentals regain the upper hand.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, gold, the safe-haven par excellence, rose by 1.4% to $2840 an ounce, a new all-time high.

Meanwhile, North Sea Brent gained 0.8% to $76.1.

In French company news, Amundi reported net income for 2024 up 13% to €1.38 billion, showing an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of +6.1% compared with the Ambitions 2025 benchmark net income for 2021, above its target of +5%.

Publicis announces recurring EPS up 4.9% to 7.30 euros for 2024, with a stable operating margin rate at 18%, for net income up 6.6% to nearly 14 billion euros (+5.8% organic).

BNP Paribas reports EPS up 8.9% to 9.57 euros for 2024, with cost of risk up slightly to three billion euros and gross operating income up 7.4% to over 18.6 billion euros.

Dassault Systèmes reports EPS growth of 7% (+9% at constant exchange rates) to 1.28 euros for full-year 2024, in line with its target range of 1.27-1.30 euros, despite a non-IFRS operating margin down 0.4 points to 31.9%.

Dassault Systèmes also announced a long-term partnership with Volkswagen Group, under which the German automaker has chosen its cloud-based 3DEXPERIENCE platform as the main platform for its engineering and manufacturing activities.

Finally, Dassault Systèmes also announced the launch of '3D UNIV+RSES', an offering that integrates several generative AI technologies at the heart of global Intellectual Property Lifecycle Management (IPLM), for the benefit of its customers.


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